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Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is increasingly showing signs of preparing to field a presidential candidate in the 2027 general elections, setting the stage for a potential face-off with President William Ruto.
This comes despite ODM party leader Raila Odinga being part of the current government under a broad-based agreement formed with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA). While the deal was initially framed as a solution to some of the country’s pressing challenges — including rising cases of abductions and economic strain — cracks are beginning to show.
Some ODM leaders are now questioning the effectiveness of the arrangement, with critics arguing that the goals it was meant to achieve remain unmet.
Tensions have grown sharper in the wake of deadly events between December 2024 and June 2025, which saw over 70 Kenyans lose their lives during the Gen Z anniversary protests, Albert Ojwang-led demonstrations, and the Saba Saba commemorations on July 7.
ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, who also serves as Nairobi Senator, recently said the future of the Raila-Ruto pact will be judged at the ballot box in 2027. He floated the idea of President Ruto stepping aside for Raila to lead the country for one term.
“The only way to prove that broad-based is working is for Ruto to step down for Raila in 2027,” Sifuna said.
He added that the objectives of the agreement are falling flat.
“At the moment, the agreement that we signed with UDA has failed because the killings and abductions have not stopped, yet the union was supposed to cure such problems,” he noted.
Political analysts have also weighed in, suggesting that the Gen Z protests of 2024 were driven more by deep-rooted frustrations like corruption and wastage of public resources — not political power-sharing.
“Ruto thought by bringing Raila into government, his problems would be solved, but it has dawned on him that he missed the point,” said political analyst Martin Ochieng.
“Even appointing Raila’s allies did not change the situation because they are yet to defend him as he expected. Another mistake that Ruto made was firing the cabinet in 2024 and promising a fresh start — but it was just meant to hoodwink the Gen Z and Kenyans at large.”
Within ODM, several MPs believe the best course now is to fully disengage from the broad-based government and rally behind Raila as a 2027 presidential candidate.
Among the most vocal is Saboti MP Caleb Hamisi, a staunch ODM loyalist, who has publicly taken on the Kenya Kwanza administration — especially on social media. Recently, Hamisi demanded that President Ruto apologise for the fatal shooting of a 12-year-old girl during Saba Saba demonstrations in Kiambu County.
Hamisi questioned how such a young child could be branded a threat.
“I’m struggling to understand how a school-going girl can be a goon, a thug or a looter to deserve to be a victim of shoot-to-kill orders,” he wrote.
He further stated that if the tragedy was a case of mistaken identity or a stray bullet, then the President should have stepped up to acknowledge it and ensure justice is served.
“A good president of a nation will pause and apologise to the nation on behalf of his officers and take immediate action to punish the culprits,” he argued.
In a passionate post, the legislator decried the apparent lack of empathy within government leadership.
“Which kind of leaders are these in Kenya Kwanza? Even a female minister cannot feel the pain of a mother and apologise on behalf of government — this hurts deeply. In 2027, in all positions, let us elect living things with a heart of humanity, bwana,” Hamisi posted.
As public frustration simmers and internal party pressure grows, the future of the Raila-Ruto political marriage appears increasingly uncertain — with 2027 shaping up as a decisive turning point.
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