SAKAJA'S UPHILL TASK AS BABU TAKES LEAD

Barely a month after an impeachment attempt on Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja’s , his grip on City Hall faces a fresh test after a new survey placed him behind Embakasi East MP Babu Owino in the race for the 2027 gubernatorial race.

The survey by ISS Africa, which covered all of Nairobi’s 17 constituencies, places Owino at 28.1 percent support among city residents. He is followed by Irungu Nyakera, the Democracy for Citizens’ Party (DCP) Nairobi patron, with 19.2 percent. Current Governor Johnson Sakaja ranks third with 16.4 percent, while Embakasi North MP James Gakuya comes in at 11.2 percent, largely buoyed by his local base.

The poll engaged 1,063 registered voters using a random multi-stage sampling approach.

Results indicate a shift in Nairobi’s political landscape, with younger voters tilting the balance. Among those aged 18 to 24, 62 percent said they would back Owino. His strongest backing remains in Eastlands, where 32 percent of voters aged 25 to 32 also favored him.

Governor Sakaja’s support, according to the findings, is drawn mainly from voters aligned with President William Ruto’s administration. Nyakera’s following is tied to allies of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and supporters of the DCP.

The data points to Nairobi’s youth—particularly Gen Z—emerging as a powerful voting bloc, potentially making Owino the face of a generational change in the city’s leadership.

With Owino’s bid strongly backed by vibrant MPs—Lang’ata’s Felix Odiwuor (alias Jalang’o) and Mumias East’s Peter Salasya—alongside Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and the city’s youthful voters, Sakaja now appears to face the same predicament as his predecessors, Mike Sonko and Evans Kidero, both of whom struggled to complete their terms in office.